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Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 12:35 am
by K-D
So here was a predictions thread.
The following is how I predicted the 2005 season somewhere else. I have not edited, despite the first two races being over and done with.
Last season I failed miserably, despite ?my? team being as dominant as any team have ever been before, but I had been fooled (like most) by the close battle in 2003. In 2005 I expect that the other teams will actually catch up with, and to some extent overtake Ferrari, and we could have a very good F1 season on our hands.
World Drivers Championship
--
The contenders in 2005 will be:
Michael Schumacher
Kimi Raikkonen
Juan Pablo Montoya
Fernando Alonso
I will be VERY surprised if any other drivers make a real push for the championship, with the relative weakness that I suspect Ferrari will have in 2005, there is no way that Rubens Barichello will be able to (or allowed for that matter) to contend for the championship, and my personal opinion is that neither will Giancarlo Fisichella.
Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya will bring out the very best in each other, and my biggest question mark about McLaren is the engine, and to see if Kimi is a car-breaker or not.
The tire rules as such will not have too much of an impact, but the fact that Ferrari is the sole Bridgestone shod team will make the manufacturer of a cars tire important. Bridgestone have done very well laying all their eggs in the Ferrari basket, and they will take any and all benefits that this co-operation gives them, and Ferrari have a manufacturer dedicated to them, and only them.
The one-engine rule did not really have an impact last season, and of the front running teams I am sure that they will all be equally strong.
Williams is contending with a ?suspect? driver line-up, and the BMW is not what it used to be, the car is not special or different from the other top teams, so they will behind Ferrari, McLaren and Renault.
BAR Honda seem to be the team with the biggest engine problems, and they have yet to run a 2 weekend mileage during a test, and they will be the ?disappointment of the season?. Jenson Button will not win a race in 2005.
All other teams a re in various degrees of shambles, problems, upstart and will have no influence on the WDC battle.
I expect the following drivers to win races in 2005:
Michael Schumacher
Rubens Barichello
Kimi Raikkonen
Juan Pablo Montoya
Fernando Alonso
Nick Heidfeld
Mark Webber
End of 2005 WDC standings will be:
1: Michael Schumacher
2: Kimi Raikkonen
3: Fernando Alonso
4: Juan Pablo Montoya
5: Rubens Barichello
6: Giancarlo Fisichella
7: Nick Heidfeld
8: Mark Webber
9: Jenson Button
10: David Coulthard
WCC 2005
--
1: McLaren
2: Ferrari
3: Renault
4: Williams
5: BAR
6: Red Bull
7: Toyota
8: Sauber
9: Minardi
10: Jordan
You heard it here first.
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:11 am
by F1greyhound
Well done K-D
Only thing is that Kimi looks to have the upper hand at MCLAREN and he still cant be called lucky. Expect Kimi to collect 20 points more than Juan Pablo.
Also Rubens will be very strong, in a very mixed field he will race for himself only, as I see it teamorders at FERRARI have been way overstressed. Rubens is as close to Michael as you can get.
Biggest question at the moment is tyre performance at Bridgestone. If they do their job FERRARI should still come out on top.
My tip for Bahrain:
1.Kimi, 2.Ralf, 3.Fernando, 4.Michael
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:55 am
by Julian Mayo
Bahrain= Alonso, Trulli, Webber, Nick
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 9:39 pm
by JayVee
So you still think the same K-D ?
julian, what will happen to Kimi ? He can't be third time unlucky !
Bahrain is another one for Alonso. He stormed through the field last year and I can't see anyone touching him this year.
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:04 pm
by K-D
JayVee wrote:So you still think the same K-D ?
julian, what will happen to Kimi ? He can't be third time unlucky !
Bahrain is another one for Alonso. He stormed through the field last year and I can't see anyone touching him this year.
No not quite.
Obviously I overrated Montoya's ability to convert talent into results under the new rules, and Renault have been mighty impressive. Having said that though the only one that I would move out of the top-10 right now is Button.
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:16 pm
by JayVee
K-D wrote:Having said that though the only one that I would move out of the top-10 right now is Button.
They did show pace for a lap and a half in Malaysia
But seriously, they'll get the Honda engine right eventually but I guess Button doesn't want to be there and if he keeps bagging them publicly he'll be replaced by Davidson and put on gardening leave
Besides he is saying stupid stuff "Compared to last year, we have made a huge step back in every area .... it's just not good enough because we're quick - that's the annoying thing. It's very disappointing"
How could you go backward in every area yet be quick
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:37 pm
by K-D
I know that Dave Richards did not personally build engines, but the biggest factor from last season to now, is that he was fired.
It never sieze (seppling) to amaze me that huge corporations are willing to spend billons of Usd, and then follwo that up with one managerial and organizatorial blunder after another.
Richards was The reason that the BAR ship was righted, and then he was let go.
Jaguar fumbled and bumbled around getting nowhere, change of ownership and it is as if we are back in the Stewart days once more. I care little for what procedures and systems the ousted Jaguar management put in place, had it been team Jaguar this season they would NOT have performed as Red Bull has.
Management, and especially sound management is highly undervalued in the teams success on track.
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:52 pm
by JayVee
K-D wrote:I know that Dave Richards did not personally build engines, but the biggest factor from last season to now, is that he was fired.
It never sieze (seppling) to amaze me that huge corporations are willing to spend billons of Usd, and then follwo that up with one managerial and organizatorial blunder after another.
Richards was The reason that the BAR ship was righted, and then he was let go.
Don't see how Richards can influence by his managerial style an engine blowing in 3 laps. By the time he was fired the engine should have been on the dyno for a few months.
The Jenson saga had an effect plus the fact that they became second because the other teams weren't strong.
Besides last year Jenson was luck as Sato kept on blowing engines like there were meant to do that!
No defending BAR just think their problem can't be just Richards
K-D wrote:Jaguar fumbled and bumbled around getting nowhere, change of ownership and it is as if we are back in the Stewart days once more. I care little for what procedures and systems the ousted Jaguar management put in place, had it been team Jaguar this season they would NOT have performed as Red Bull has.
Lets wait and see how the car develops. These guys took over a signed off car and engine package. Credit has to be given to the guys who built it and managed it. Sure the style of the new management has an influence but it is too early to call. We'll see mid season where they stand
And I don't agree with the bagging Red Bull got from the media after firing P & P, but had Red Bull gone backward, I wonder if you'd be saying the same thing as Richards
K-D wrote:Management, and especially sound management is highly undervalued in the teams success on track.
Only if management are bean counters
Look at Ferrari and McLaren for instance
Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:02 am
by Julian Mayo
Don't forget Red Bull took over a Webber developed car, the style of which suits DC to a "T".. Every engineer that has worked with Webber has nothing but praise for his ability to speak "engineer". Look for Williams being on the pace sooner rather than later!
Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 9:46 am
by Graham Ross
julian mayo wrote:Don't forget Red Bull took over a Webber developed car, the style of which suits DC to a "T".. Every engineer that has worked with Webber has nothing but praise for his ability to speak "engineer". Look for Williams being on the pace sooner rather than later!
Oh please Julian, Webber is good yes but he doesn't build cars or engines.
If what you say makes sense then why did Jaguar not improve in the second year Webber was with them ?
Fact: Jaguar finished 7th in both 03 and 04 but in 03 scored 18 points (17 for Webber) while in 04 scored just 10 (7 for Webber)
So I can assume that Webber input made the car worse
Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 9:54 am
by Julian Mayo
No money!!!
Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:41 pm
by JayVee
Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:46 pm
by Julian Mayo
Yes, they had money the first year, and Webber performed well, and had a lot of input in developing the car for the next season, then Ford
canned the money for R&D., then along came Red Bull who carried out the developments and applied them to the car. QED
