Let me first say that I am impressed by your post even if I didn't agree with a few things in itJulian Mayo wrote:
The Ferrari will be more, not less reliable, otherwise FIAT will sack the entire marque.
The McLaren's what?? Sorry, apostrophe man held a gun at my head, and made me type this :oops
:
IMHO
And based rather loosely around historical data of the Formula.
The Ferraris have about a .04 improvement, plus a Kimi improvement of, say, .02....by seasons end. net gain... point.06 per lap..that is not factoring in the Ferrari/Bridgestone advantage of a wet race.....(Jeez, what I would give to chuck Therapy around Marinello with the sprinklers on.....A powerful ute on a wet track.....better than......as good as......well nearly as good as....... a Kebab at 3 am.
The McLarens will at best match that as they learn about Bridgestones.
BMW will, with their HUGE technological advantage, improve by at least .08 per lap by seasons end, with the drivers both capable of handling that.
That puts McLaren under threat, for points, especially when they can run the soft tyre for the first long run on full tanks....I think the BMW must be as sweet to drive as the Renault was 2 years ago.......
Hamilton will take points fron Alonso......"saving tyres" is driver B.ll for "I could not pass him".....Okay, it worked in Melbourne as Denis used it to say thanks to Alonso's sponsors.
But we are talking about a Kid that Denis has been backing for a long, long time....it is Denis' personal reputation at stake........His personal DREAM would surely be a one/two at every race, with Alonso in second place.
Red Bull will improve by as much as 1 second by season end, which is going to throw a qualifying cat amongst the pigeons, and hamper anyone from grid four down....
Scenario........
Grid.after Qaulifying
Massa.........Kimmi
Kubica(Light on softs)........Webber(light on softs)
Hamilton......Alonso
Heidfield......Ralf (Running light, on softs)
Alonso simply does not get the chance to strike at the Ferraris....in this scenario second is the very best he can hope for......and I believe this a real grid chance....more than once.
I believe there are three brilliant drivers in F1 now.
Alonso.....brilliant, with luck on his side (And any Driver needs luck.......if his car had the problems that Fisi's had........)
Kimi..........just so bloody fast.
I really do not believe he is a car breaker.
He and Alonso remind me of Jack Brabham and Stirling Moss. Stirling set many records, Jack won the odd title.........luck is a fickle Lady.
Webber....he quite simply qualifies cars into postions that stagger all the team managers, pit crews, broadcasters,his team mates, other drivers, flaggies, ambos, Bernice, me,........and often with a lot more fuel than is supposed by all the experts. He has done it too often, with too many "buckets of bolts", to be described as anything else.
Even Schumaker learned to pull on the reins, rather than try to chuck it down the inside, when the gap wasn't there.
And the racecraft he has garnered beating around in the mddle of the pack or worse, compared to racing one or two other car......Hell's Bells.....Ralf keeps missing him these days !!!
He has beaten Alons on the odd occasion,did you know?
All the above is the personal opinion of the Scribe, and in no way reflects the opinions of the station management, who are now taking to the bunkers with flak jackets, tin helmets........and forgot to lock the F1 Idiots Bar.
First, wet race ? From the evidence we saw last year, Alonso would be unbeatable in the rain. Raikkonen isn't that good in the wet and tends to drive into other cars. Massa is OK
McLaren are certainly starting behind but their gain will have to be more than Ferrari as they learn more about the tyres.
Not sure what HUGE technological advantage BMW have ? You mean the wind tunnel ? I think McLaren has at least an equally HUGE advantage.
So far them and BMW have adapted very well to the Bridgestone tyres
I completely disagree with the theory that Hamilton will take points from Alonso. Hamilton was impressive but don't make a very premature statement like that. Remember Rosberg in Bahrain last year.
As for pleasing the sponsors, that in my opinion is BS, Alonso accepting second to anyone will never happen. You don't become double world champion with that attitude.
Alonso lucky ? How ? I remember Hungary last year when he would have won but had that wheel nut problem. I remember in China when he would have won but chose to change the tyres when he shouldn't. I remember Italy when he was penalised and then his engine blew. Yes he did get lucky in Japan when Michael blew an engine but he had two retirements based on mechanical failure before that so overall last year he wasn't as lucky as Michael!
(Oh and the problems Fisichella had ? Which ones ? Last year Fisichella had just 1 mechanical failure all season against 2 for Alonso. Did you know the point difference between the 2 ? 62 points that is just 10 points less than all the points scored by the 'luckier' Fisichella! - Everyone needs a bit of luck but Alonso was by no means one of the 'luckier' ones last year)
Webber indeed impresses in qualifying but his race craft isn't looking great. I am afraid he'll be labelled another 'Trulli' if he doesn't start to consistently finish races in positions equal or higher than qualifying position.
It is way too early in the season. We will have a few surprises along the way but one thing for sure, Ferrari won't run away with it this season. They have reliability issues.
) leaves you with an extra .02 of a mil of rubber to contest the last 20 laps, while the guy chasing has to use up just a little tiny bit more of everything .......etc.
So what are we saying here? In his rookie season, RALF outscored JENSON's first season by 1 point as well. Help me out here if you can! 
) he was mighty impressive.